Map-scale morphology transfer audit

A reproducible comparison of a Mars reference terrain unit with candidate Earth terrain units at a declared common support of 1000.0 m.

Scope. This screens terrain morphology only. It does not estimate rover traversability, validate autonomy, establish geological equivalence, certify site access, or certify mission readiness.

Result: TIE — Tie - evidence does not separate candidates. No single unit is recommended; see the result state and sensitivity below.

MORPHOLOGY COMPARISON (normalized distance to reference)

Decision axes (extended): slope, relief, ruggedness, connectivity, aspect_dispersion, hypsometric_integral. Lower is closer. A star marks a recommended follow-up unit. No single composite "Mars-likeness" score is produced; ranking is by Pareto dominance, and a tie is a valid result.

Earth terrain unit	distance vector	valid	zero	eligibility
earth_candidate_a	[1.330, 1.378, 1.454, 0.030, 0.011, 0.142]	0.99	0.00	eligible
earth_candidate_b	[0.746, 0.776, 0.759, 0.018, 0.390, 0.281]	1.00	0.00	eligible

DECISION MATRIX (per-axis distance to reference)

Each cell is the normalized distance on one decision axis; lower = closer to the Mars reference. Rows are the eligible Earth units and a star marks a recommended follow-up. Axes are reported separately on purpose: no single composite "Mars-likeness" score is produced, and the ranking is by Pareto dominance across these axes (a tie is a valid result).

unit	slope	relief	ruggedness	connectivity	aspect_dispersion	hypsometric_integral
earth_candidate_a	1.330	1.378	1.454	0.030	0.011	0.142
earth_candidate_b	0.746	0.776	0.759	0.018	0.390	0.281

EXTENDED MORPHOLOGY DESCRIPTORS

unit	aspect dispersion	hypsometric integral
earth_candidate_a	0.885	0.385
earth_candidate_b	0.485	0.246
mars_reference	0.874	0.527

Aspect dispersion: 0 = one downslope direction, 1 = isotropic. Hypsometric integral: elevation-distribution shape (0.5 = symmetric). Reported for transparency; included in the decision only when decision axes = extended.

SENSITIVITY (pairwise rank-flip fraction)

pair	flip
earth_candidate_a\|earth_candidate_b	0.06

0.00 means the pairwise comparison never changed sign across the tested scenarios. High values mean the result is assumption-sensitive.

DRAFT STUDY PROTOCOL

Collect discriminating data because current evidence does not separate the candidate units.

NOT_AUTHORIZED: access, ecology, and safety unverified

WHAT THIS COMPARISON CANNOT ESTABLISH

T0 topographic_morphology — Map-scale slope/relief/ruggedness comparable at declared support. Do not infer rock-scale obstacles or wheel-scale hazards.
T1 low_slope_connectivity — Broad corridor structure is comparable at declared support. Not a traversable route or path guarantee.
T2 gravity — Mars surface gravity (~0.38 g) is not reproduced on Earth. Do not infer mobility, slip, or stability transfer.
T2 atmosphere_pressure — Mars atmospheric density/pressure is not reproduced. Do not infer dust lofting, aero-thermal, or EDL behaviour.
T3 regolith_mechanics — Mechanical soil behaviour is not inferred from a DEM. Do not claim traction, sinkage, or bearing equivalence.
T2 radiation — Surface radiation environment is not reproduced. Do not infer radiation effects from terrain.
T3 thermal_cycle — Diurnal/seasonal thermal regime is not inferred from terrain. Do not infer thermal survival.
T3 illumination — Illumination geometry is context only unless modelled. Do not infer power or imaging performance.
T3 communications — Relay/line-of-sight geometry is not inferred from terrain. Do not infer link availability.
T4 site_access — Field access/permission is not implied by public data. Do not present as an authorized test site.
T4 ecology_community — Ecological and community governance must be verified. Do not plan field work without authorization.

DATA SOURCES & CITATIONS

Mars: Smith, D. E., et al. Mars Global Surveyor MOLA Mission Experiment Gridded Data Record (MEGDR); USGS Astrogeology 'Mars MGS MOLA DEM 463m'. NASA PDS Geosciences Node. NASA PDS / USGS public data; attribution required; cite product + version.
Earth: ESA Copernicus GLO-30 Digital Elevation Model, distributed by OpenTopography. (c) ESA. Attribution required. Copernicus data; free use with attribution; see OpenTopography terms.

UNCERTAINTY (BOOTSTRAP, n=300)

Method: independent resampling. Feature distributions resampled with replacement. Non-domination frequency is how often each unit is Pareto non-dominated across resamples; a single clear winner appears in 0% of resamples. Slope-distance shown as median [95% CI].

unit	non-dominated	clear winner	slope distance
earth_candidate_a	100%	0%	1.33 [1.25–1.40]
earth_candidate_b	100%	0%	0.75 [0.71–0.78]

CIs assume independent pixels; spatial autocorrelation makes them optimistic.

DECISION CONFIDENCE

Verdict: TIE — Result state 'TIE' is not a single-unit recommendation, so the verdict mirrors the state (tie). No robustness signals were evaluable.

Three independent robustness signals, reported separately with no composite score.

signal	evaluated	value / flag	detail
bootstrap non-domination	no	—	no recommended unit or no bootstrap units table
significance vs runner-up	no	—	no significance block in package (opt-in)
lens/support stability	no	—	no sensitivity report provided

Not evaluated:

bootstrap_non_domination not evaluated
significance_vs_runner_up not evaluated
lens_stability not evaluated

Decision confidence restates existing robustness evidence (bootstrap non-domination, a permutation test vs the runner-up, and lens/support stability) as independent signals and one categorical verdict — there is no composite score. Morphology/statistics only; not a traversability, hazard, or mission-readiness claim.

PROVENANCE

Every value derives from the real_dem_aeqd source through a recorded transformation and resolves in the evidence graph. Package hash:

577a7041a04091a950f2ae319c302b45576722c2a014a6d8dce4e95ddcdc6e60

Raw study package (JSON)

{
  "baseline_vectors": {
    "earth_candidate_a": [
      1.3301819691374828,
      1.3781920971237565,
      1.4540619222913125,
      0.029584445088408257,
      0.011167686139968325,
      0.14166930568496394
    ],
    "earth_candidate_b": [
      0.745934518862815,
      0.7756599864495671,
      0.7592894864610598,
      0.017631627148054326,
      0.3895190264738422,
      0.2809340868772813
    ]
  },
  "bootstrap": {
    "decisive_freq": 0.0,
    "n_boot": 300,
    "note": "CIs assume independent pixels; spatial autocorrelation makes them optimistic.",
    "seed": 0,
    "units": {
      "earth_candidate_a": {
        "clear_winner_freq": 0.0,
        "distance_ci": {
          "relief": [
            1.3201247518249393,
            1.3779842094467631,
            1.4268355784053537
          ],
          "ruggedness": [
            1.3712296736422735,
            1.45826315662497,
            1.5396096481389627
          ],
          "slope": [
            1.2511972245949887,
            1.3309072280453262,
            1.4026700184421432
          ]
        },
        "nondominated_freq": 1.0
      },
      "earth_candidate_b": {
        "clear_winner_freq": 0.0,
        "distance_ci": {
          "relief": [
            0.7476751805183154,
            0.7764404965920995,
            0.8020613580566384
          ],
          "ruggedness": [
            0.7238551159788048,
            0.7603240900675199,
            0.7906987025736079
          ],
          "slope": [
            0.7112412001057482,
            0.745605976538253,
            0.7798641192449766
          ]
        },
        "nondominated_freq": 1.0
      }
    }
  },
  "draft_protocol": {
    "acceptance_criteria": [
      "feature distributions within predeclared tolerance at common support",
      "result stable across declared sensitivity scenarios",
      "no eligibility blocker (data, rights, ecology, safety)"
    ],
    "authorization": "NOT_AUTHORIZED: access, ecology, and safety unverified",
    "hypothesis": "At the declared common support, candidate terrain reproduces the reference slope/relief/ruggedness/connectivity distributions within stated tolerances.",
    "measurements_required_next": [
      "higher-resolution terrain survey to assess sub-support structure",
      "surface material/geotechnical characterization (separate study)",
      "illumination and visibility modelling (separate study)",
      "field access, ecological, and community authorization review"
    ],
    "objective": "Collect discriminating data because current evidence does not separate the candidate units.",
    "profile": {
      "claim_maturity": "prototype_morphology_only",
      "decision_metrics": "extended",
      "metrics": [
        "slope",
        "relief",
        "ruggedness",
        "connectivity",
        "aspect_dispersion",
        "hypsometric_integral"
      ],
      "source_label": "real_dem_aeqd",
      "target_body": "mars",
      "target_support_m": 1000.0,
      "task": "map_scale_terrain_route_study"
    },
    "recommended_unit": null,
    "rejection_criteria": [
      "ranking reverses under reasonable support/threshold changes",
      "valid-data fraction below declared minimum",
      "access or governance status cannot be verified"
    ],
    "result_state": "TIE",
    "status": "draft",
    "stop_conditions": [
      "permission not granted",
      "protected-area or community constraint",
      "safety or environmental risk"
    ],
    "transfer_boundary": "Morphology comparison only. The following conditions are not established by this result and bound every downstream claim."
  },
  "eligibility": {
    "earth_candidate_a": {
      "eligible": true,
      "reason": "eligible"
    },
    "earth_candidate_b": {
      "eligible": true,
      "reason": "eligible"
    },
    "mars_reference": {
      "eligible": true,
      "reason": "eligible"
    }
  },
  "evidence_graph": {
    "edges": [
      {
        "from": "mars_reference",
        "rel": "represented_by",
        "to": "src:real_dem_aeqd"
      },
      {
        "from": "earth_candidate_a",
        "rel": "represented_by",
        "to": "src:real_dem_aeqd"
      },
      {
        "from": "earth_candidate_b",
        "rel": "represented_by",
        "to": "src:real_dem_aeqd"
      },
      {
        "from": "c:elig:mars_reference",
        "rel": "about",
        "to": "mars_reference"
      },
      {
        "from": "c:elig:earth_candidate_a",
        "rel": "about",
        "to": "earth_candidate_a"
      },
      {
        "from": "c:elig:earth_candidate_b",
        "rel": "about",
        "to": "earth_candidate_b"
      },
      {
        "from": "c:earth_candidate_a",
        "rel": "about",
        "to": "earth_candidate_a"
      },
      {
        "from": "c:earth_candidate_b",
        "rel": "about",
        "to": "earth_candidate_b"
      }
    ],
    "nodes": [
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "src:real_dem_aeqd",
        "product_id": "real_dem_aeqd",
        "provider": "TerraTrace real_dem_aeqd",
        "terms": "see source_lock / dataset terms",
        "type": "SourceProduct",
        "version": "0.1.0"
      },
      {
        "id": "tr:common_support",
        "inputs": [
          "src:real_dem_aeqd"
        ],
        "method": "block_aggregate+features",
        "params": {
          "metrics": [
            "slope",
            "relief",
            "ruggedness",
            "connectivity"
          ]
        },
        "type": "Transformation"
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:elig:mars_reference",
        "supported_by": [
          "src:real_dem_aeqd"
        ],
        "text": "mars_reference eligibility=True: eligible",
        "type": "Claim"
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:elig:earth_candidate_a",
        "supported_by": [
          "src:real_dem_aeqd"
        ],
        "text": "earth_candidate_a eligibility=True: eligible",
        "type": "Claim"
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:elig:earth_candidate_b",
        "supported_by": [
          "src:real_dem_aeqd"
        ],
        "text": "earth_candidate_b eligibility=True: eligible",
        "type": "Claim"
      },
      {
        "feature": "morphology_distance_vector",
        "generated_by": "tr:common_support",
        "id": "m:earth_candidate_a",
        "type": "FeatureMeasurement",
        "uncertainty": {
          "valid_fraction": 0.9921921921921922
        },
        "unit": "normalized",
        "value": [
          1.3301819691374828,
          1.3781920971237565,
          1.4540619222913125,
          0.029584445088408257,
          0.011167686139968325,
          0.14166930568496394
        ],
        "window_m": 1000.0
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:earth_candidate_a",
        "supported_by": [
          "m:earth_candidate_a"
        ],
        "text": "earth_candidate_a morphology distance to reference at common support",
        "type": "Claim"
      },
      {
        "feature": "morphology_distance_vector",
        "generated_by": "tr:common_support",
        "id": "m:earth_candidate_b",
        "type": "FeatureMeasurement",
        "uncertainty": {
          "valid_fraction": 1.0
        },
        "unit": "normalized",
        "value": [
          0.745934518862815,
          0.7756599864495671,
          0.7592894864610598,
          0.017631627148054326,
          0.3895190264738422,
          0.2809340868772813
        ],
        "window_m": 1000.0
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:earth_candidate_b",
        "supported_by": [
          "m:earth_candidate_b"
        ],
        "text": "earth_candidate_b morphology distance to reference at common support",
        "type": "Claim"
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:sensitivity",
        "supported_by": [
          "c:earth_candidate_a",
          "c:earth_candidate_b"
        ],
        "text": "pairwise rank-flip matrix across scenarios: {'earth_candidate_a|earth_candidate_b': 0.05555555555555555}",
        "type": "Claim"
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:result",
        "supported_by": [
          "c:earth_candidate_a",
          "c:earth_candidate_b",
          "c:sensitivity"
        ],
        "text": "result=TIE; recommended=None",
        "type": "Claim"
      },
      {
        "claim_status": "C3",
        "id": "c:protocol",
        "supported_by": [
          "c:result"
        ],
        "text": "draft study protocol (not an authorization)",
        "type": "Claim"
      }
    ]
  },
  "extended_metrics": {
    "earth_candidate_a": {
      "aspect_dispersion": 0.8853425418070451,
      "hypsometric_integral": 0.3848371225839129,
      "tpi_dispersion": 97.24059631315762
    },
    "earth_candidate_b": {
      "aspect_dispersion": 0.4846558291932346,
      "hypsometric_integral": 0.2455723413915956,
      "tpi_dispersion": 16.299588392221175
    },
    "mars_reference": {
      "aspect_dispersion": 0.8741748556670768,
      "hypsometric_integral": 0.5265064282688768,
      "tpi_dispersion": 48.93406477247951
    }
  },
  "package_hash": "577a7041a04091a950f2ae319c302b45576722c2a014a6d8dce4e95ddcdc6e60",
  "pairwise_flip_matrix": {
    "earth_candidate_a|earth_candidate_b": 0.05555555555555555
  },
  "profile": {
    "claim_maturity": "prototype_morphology_only",
    "decision_metrics": "extended",
    "metrics": [
      "slope",
      "relief",
      "ruggedness",
      "connectivity",
      "aspect_dispersion",
      "hypsometric_integral"
    ],
    "source_label": "real_dem_aeqd",
    "target_body": "mars",
    "target_support_m": 1000.0,
    "task": "map_scale_terrain_route_study"
  },
  "prohibited_claims": [
    "Do not infer rock-scale obstacles or wheel-scale hazards.",
    "Not a traversable route or path guarantee.",
    "Do not infer mobility, slip, or stability transfer.",
    "Do not infer dust lofting, aero-thermal, or EDL behaviour.",
    "Do not claim traction, sinkage, or bearing equivalence.",
    "Do not infer radiation effects from terrain.",
    "Do not infer thermal survival.",
    "Do not infer power or imaging performance.",
    "Do not infer link availability.",
    "Do not present as an authorized test site.",
    "Do not plan field work without authorization."
  ],
  "recommended_unit": null,
  "result_state": "TIE",
  "scenario_names": [
    "baseline",
    "stricter_slope",
    "robust_relief",
    "lenient"
  ],
  "scenario_vectors": [
    {
      "earth_candidate_a": [
        1.3301819691374828,
        1.3781920971237565,
        1.4540619222913125,
        0.029584445088408257,
        0.011167686139968325,
        0.14166930568496394
      ],
      "earth_candidate_b": [
        0.745934518862815,
        0.7756599864495671,
        0.7592894864610598,
        0.017631627148054326,
        0.3895190264738422,
        0.2809340868772813
      ]
    },
    {
      "earth_candidate_a": [
        1.3301819691374828,
        1.3781920971237565,
        1.4540619222913125,
        0.16986964498256005,
        0.011167686139968325,
        0.14166930568496394
      ],
      "earth_candidate_b": [
        0.745934518862815,
        0.7756599864495671,
        0.7592894864610598,
        0.05938546983795205,
        0.3895190264738422,
        0.2809340868772813
      ]
    },
    {
      "earth_candidate_a": [
        1.3301819691374828,
        1.1276745443016343,
        1.4540619222913125,
        0.029584445088408257,
        0.011167686139968325,
        0.14166930568496394
      ],
      "earth_candidate_b": [
        0.745934518862815,
        0.6553825017882614,
        0.7592894864610598,
        0.017631627148054326,
        0.3895190264738422,
        0.2809340868772813
      ]
    },
    {
      "earth_candidate_a": [
        1.3301819691374828,
        1.1276745443016343,
        1.4540619222913125,
        0.000734606296849171,
        0.011167686139968325,
        0.14166930568496394
      ],
      "earth_candidate_b": [
        0.745934518862815,
        0.6553825017882614,
        0.7592894864610598,
        0.003798701834201123,
        0.3895190264738422,
        0.2809340868772813
      ]
    }
  ],
  "schema_version": "0.1.0",
  "transfer_gap_ledger": {
    "gaps": [
      {
        "category": "topographic_morphology",
        "class": "T0",
        "prohibited": "Do not infer rock-scale obstacles or wheel-scale hazards.",
        "statement": "Map-scale slope/relief/ruggedness comparable at declared support."
      },
      {
        "category": "low_slope_connectivity",
        "class": "T1",
        "prohibited": "Not a traversable route or path guarantee.",
        "statement": "Broad corridor structure is comparable at declared support."
      },
      {
        "category": "gravity",
        "class": "T2",
        "prohibited": "Do not infer mobility, slip, or stability transfer.",
        "statement": "Mars surface gravity (~0.38 g) is not reproduced on Earth."
      },
      {
        "category": "atmosphere_pressure",
        "class": "T2",
        "prohibited": "Do not infer dust lofting, aero-thermal, or EDL behaviour.",
        "statement": "Mars atmospheric density/pressure is not reproduced."
      },
      {
        "category": "regolith_mechanics",
        "class": "T3",
        "prohibited": "Do not claim traction, sinkage, or bearing equivalence.",
        "statement": "Mechanical soil behaviour is not inferred from a DEM."
      },
      {
        "category": "radiation",
        "class": "T2",
        "prohibited": "Do not infer radiation effects from terrain.",
        "statement": "Surface radiation environment is not reproduced."
      },
      {
        "category": "thermal_cycle",
        "class": "T3",
        "prohibited": "Do not infer thermal survival.",
        "statement": "Diurnal/seasonal thermal regime is not inferred from terrain."
      },
      {
        "category": "illumination",
        "class": "T3",
        "prohibited": "Do not infer power or imaging performance.",
        "statement": "Illumination geometry is context only unless modelled."
      },
      {
        "category": "communications",
        "class": "T3",
        "prohibited": "Do not infer link availability.",
        "statement": "Relay/line-of-sight geometry is not inferred from terrain."
      },
      {
        "category": "site_access",
        "class": "T4",
        "prohibited": "Do not present as an authorized test site.",
        "statement": "Field access/permission is not implied by public data."
      },
      {
        "category": "ecology_community",
        "class": "T4",
        "prohibited": "Do not plan field work without authorization.",
        "statement": "Ecological and community governance must be verified."
      }
    ],
    "note": "Morphology comparison only. The following conditions are not established by this result and bound every downstream claim.",
    "result_state": "TIE"
  },
  "unit_metadata": {
    "earth_candidate_a": {
      "data_present": true,
      "min_valid_fraction": 0.5,
      "rights_status": "verified_allowed",
      "support": {
        "aggregation": "mean",
        "factor": 1,
        "native_posting_m": 1000.0,
        "target_support_m": 1000.0,
        "valid_fraction": 0.9921921921921922
      },
      "support_valid": true,
      "valid_fraction": 0.9921921921921922,
      "zero_fraction": 0.0,
      "zero_fraction_max": 0.6
    },
    "earth_candidate_b": {
      "data_present": true,
      "min_valid_fraction": 0.5,
      "rights_status": "verified_allowed",
      "support": {
        "aggregation": "mean",
        "factor": 1,
        "native_posting_m": 1000.0,
        "target_support_m": 1000.0,
        "valid_fraction": 1.0
      },
      "support_valid": true,
      "valid_fraction": 1.0,
      "zero_fraction": 0.0,
      "zero_fraction_max": 0.6
    },
    "mars_reference": {
      "data_present": true,
      "min_valid_fraction": 0.5,
      "rights_status": "verified_allowed",
      "support": {
        "aggregation": "mean",
        "factor": 1,
        "native_posting_m": 1000.0,
        "target_support_m": 1000.0,
        "valid_fraction": 1.0
      },
      "support_valid": true,
      "valid_fraction": 1.0,
      "zero_fraction": 0.0,
      "zero_fraction_max": 0.6
    }
  }
}

TerraTrace reference engine - source: real_dem_aeqd - morphology screening build. Not an official NASA submission artifact. Not NASA-endorsed.