TerraTrace · evidence atlas · built offline

How much evidence supports this, at what scale, and where does it break?

Every number on this page is read from a committed record and reconciled against the other records before the page is written. Nothing here is fetched at runtime: no network, no API key, no computation on load.

Which candidate is closest, among those tested?
definite at 18 / 18
a relative answer; well defined however weak the field
Is any candidate inside the reference's own variability?
not established, at all 18
where both descriptor bands exist — 6 of the 18 cells, the six at 500 m — the yardstick admits at least 4 of 5 known-different controls, so membership in it is not evidence of similarity; at the other 12 there is no relief band to admit anything, and the verdict rests on slope alone
Is the evidence enough to answer either?
marginal
6 error realisations sampled while an ensemble claim is made; fewer than 30; the axes span a single dimension, so the evidence is one-dimensional whatever the axis count suggests
These are three answers to three questions and the third does not cancel the first two — it qualifies them. A project that reported only the first would be describing the same data and claiming more.

A · The comparable windows

Every window the decisions were made on, with the metadata needed to check that both sides of a comparison cover the same ground. Footprint is what was compared; support is the cell size; the effective floor is the coarsest support the source can honestly carry.

regimereferencebodyfootprintsupportcellspostingfloorvalid
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site01moon9.0 km1000 m9×95 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site04moon9.0 km1000 m9×95 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site07moon9.0 km1000 m9×95 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site11moon9.0 km1000 m9×95 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site20moon9.0 km1000 m9×95 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site23moon9.0 km1000 m9×95 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site01moon9.0 km500 m18×185 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site04moon9.0 km500 m18×185 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site07moon9.0 km500 m18×185 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site11moon9.0 km500 m18×185 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site20moon9.0 km500 m18×185 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site23moon9.0 km500 m18×185 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site01moon9.0 km750 m12×125 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site04moon9.0 km750 m12×125 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site07moon9.0 km750 m12×125 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site11moon9.0 km750 m12×125 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site20moon9.0 km750 m12×125 m15 m1.000
lunar_panel_v2LUNAR_Site23moon9.0 km750 m12×125 m15 m1.000
mars_panel_v3mars_daedaliamars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_daedaliamars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_daedaliamars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_elysiummars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_elysiummars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_elysiummars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_amazonismars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_amazonismars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_amazonismars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_syriamars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_syriamars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_syriamars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_hesperiamars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_hesperiamars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_hesperiamars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_noachismars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_noachismars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_noachismars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_copratesmars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_copratesmars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_copratesmars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_arcadiamars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_arcadiamars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_arcadiamars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_cerberusmars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_cerberusmars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_cerberusmars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_solismars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_solismars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_solismars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_terra_sabaeamars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_terra_sabaeamars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_terra_sabaeamars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_terra_sirenummars60.0 km1500 m40×40463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_terra_sirenummars60.0 km2000 m30×30463 m1389 m—
mars_panel_v3mars_terra_sirenummars60.0 km3000 m20×20463 m1389 m—

What a resolution actually means here

footprint 9000 m
source posting 30 m (Copernicus)
source posting 5 m (LOLA)
effective floor 90 m (3x 30 m)
effective floor 15 m (3x 5 m)
All five bars are drawn on the same 9000 m scale. A comparison is honest when the support is above the effective floor of both sources: that is the arithmetic that excludes Mars from the lunar regime, not a preference.

B · The decision matrix — ranking is not adequacy

Each row is one comparable window. Ranking asks which candidate is closest among those tested. Adequacy asks whether any of them is inside the reference's own morphological variability. Sufficiency asks whether the evidence is enough to answer either. They are filled in independently and they disagree, which is the point of showing them side by side.

cellrankingunitworst axisadequacysufficiency
Site01@1000mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.12NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site01@500mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.21NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site01@750mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.12NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site04@1000mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.71NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site04@500mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.70NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site04@750mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.70NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site07@1000mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.11NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site07@500mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.16NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site07@750mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.12NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site11@1000mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.36NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site11@500mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.25NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site11@750mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.32NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site20@1000mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.17NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site20@500mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.17NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site20@750mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.17NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site23@1000mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.36NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site23@500mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.24NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Site23@750mRECOMMEND_FOLLOW_UP provisionalearth_nevada_basin0.31NOT_ESTABLISHEDmarginal
Why this section exists. This project withdrew a Mars claim by reading “non-dominated among these candidates” as “a good analog”, and published a lunar headline whose survivor is 70% away on its worst axis at one site. Both were the same mistake. A page that showed only the ranking column would invite it a third time.

C · Where it survives, and where it reverses

30 perturbations were declared before the stress test ran, with the pass rule fixed in advance. 28 of 30 left the ordering untouched. The grid below is every cell against every counted perturbation — the two reversals are the falsifiable part and they are as visible as the passes.

+400m_e-400m_e+400m_n-400m_n500-to-4500-to-6750-to-91000-to-6000m3000m10500m@59750m@7510000m@1bilinearnearestborder_rtail10pcnoise3pctilt0.5dsmooth3xmean_slomean_relelev_stdearth_nuearth_llearth_deearth_snearth_haearth_odearth_an
Site01 @ 500 m·········R···················R
Site01 @ 750 m·········R···················R
Site01 @ 1000 m·········R···················R
Site04 @ 500 m······························
Site04 @ 750 m······························
Site04 @ 1000 m······························
Site07 @ 500 m·········R···················R
Site07 @ 750 m·········R····················
Site07 @ 1000 m·········R····················
Site11 @ 500 m······························
Site11 @ 750 m······························
Site11 @ 1000 m······························
Site20 @ 500 m·········R···················R
Site20 @ 750 m·········R···················R
Site20 @ 1000 m·········R···················R
Site23 @ 500 m·········R····················
Site23 @ 750 m·········R····················
Site23 @ 1000 m······························
unchangedR — reversed· — not evaluated by that perturbation

The two conditions that reverse it

D · Is the frontier robust to the axis set?

The lunar panel decides a winner by Pareto dominance over three declared axes. This section asks whether that winner is a property of the terrain or of the rule — and answers it against a control, because a Pareto frontier over eight units in three dimensions is expected to be fragile when a fourth coordinate arrives, any fourth coordinate.

measurementvaluewhat it means
candidate axes decision-tested141every admissible scalar in the engine’s own descriptor bank was added as a fourth axis in turn and the layer-1 set recomputed at all 18 cells
cells whose winner set changed0 to 18 of 1842 of the 141 axes changed nothing at all; adding a coordinate can only ever promote a co-winner, never remove one
an arbitrary coordinate15.90 of 18 cells on averageover 300 random draws, median 18, leaving the frontier intact in 12% of them — this is the baseline the numbers above must beat
axes beating that control0none. Every change above is what adding a dimension does, not evidence about a candidate
most independent descriptor/variogram/nugget, adjusted R² -0.511the three declared axes predict it no better than three random numbers would (chance level R² 0.4286) — and it changes the decision at 0 of 18 cells, which is how independence and decision-relevance come apart
what the axes cannot see48 of 180 bank scalarsthe three declared axes are exactly blind to a quarter-turn rotation of a planar surface (verified to 1e-13); the scalars listed here are the ones that are not, and they are the only ones this symmetry argument can even point at
What this bounds. The sole-non-dominated property is a property of running a Pareto rule over eight units in three dimensions, so it must not be read as evidence about candidates. The ranking stands as published — relative and provisional — and this measures exactly how provisional. It does not promote any Earth candidate: adding dimensions promotes co-winners without discriminating between them. EXPLORATORY SENSITIVITY PROBE.

E · Diagnostics

diagnosticvaluewhat it means
descriptor dependenceeffective rank 1 of 3mean slope and 3×3 relief are the same gradient up to a direction factor; the “three axes” are one measurement, so this is a one-dimensional screen
the relation, verifiedworst relief error 4.4e-16 mchecked against the engine's own slope and relief functions on synthetic planes, and ρ observed inside the provable [1.0000, 1.4142]
planar fit on the panelρ = 1.319, R² = 0.9989a one-parameter fit to real terrain recovers the direction factor the algebra predicts
error ensemble6 of 100 published realisationsthe archive's own perturbed DEM clones, not independent per-pixel noise, which would average away under aggregation and manufacture stability
adequacy bands0 of 18 usablea calibrated band that admits known-different terrain is not a yardstick, so it is demoted rather than reported as a positive
resolution limitsMars floor 1389 m > every lunar supportthe comparability gate refuses a candidate below its source's effective resolution; Mars is excluded from the lunar regime by that arithmetic, not by preference
the nearest unita sibling lunar site in 18 of 24 site × descriptor statisticsNevada is the closest Earth candidate everywhere, and not the closest unit: the six nearby sites are more like each other than any Earth terrain is

F · Every claim points at two records

The atlas is assembled from six committed records and refuses to publish if any two of them disagree. Each check below names both records it holds together, so a reader can go and read them.

checkthe claim it holdsthe records
documented_hash:v3_bundlethe v3 bundle hash printed in the v3 protocol equals the file on diskdocs/BENCHMARK-PROTOCOL-v3.md <-> artifacts/mf_panel_v3/matched_panel_v3_real.json
documented_hash:v3_configthe v3 config hash printed in RESULTS-v3 equals the config on diskdocs/RESULTS-v3.md <-> config/matched_footprint_v3.yml
lunar_headline:panelall 18 lunar cells share one single-member non-dominated set, and it is Nevadaartifacts/lunar_sites_v2/lunar_sites_v2.json
lunar_headline:stress_baselinethe stress test re-derived the panel's headline rather than assuming itartifacts/lunar_adversarial/lunar_adversarial.json
ranking:adequacy_matches_panelevery cell the adequacy report ranks recommends the panel's survivorartifacts/lunar_adequacy/lunar_adequacy.json <-> artifacts/lunar_sites_v2
dependence:agrees_with_stressthe audit says one axis and dropping any single axis changes nothingartifacts/dependence <-> artifacts/lunar_adversarial
stress:summary_matches_rowsstable + reversing perturbations equal the counted totalartifacts/lunar_adversarial/lunar_adversarial.json
adequacy:summary_matches_cellsthe summary's sibling-nearest count is what the cells sayartifacts/lunar_adequacy/lunar_adequacy.json
regimes:disjoint_supportsthe two regimes share no support, so nothing may be pooled across themthe two declared regimes
v3:hypothesis_counts_sumthe R-rule change counts sum to the number of cells they classifyartifacts/mf_panel_v3/matched_panel_v3_real.json
axis:probe_reproduces_panelthe probe re-derived the panel's single-member frontier at all 18 cellsartifacts/lunar_axis_probe <-> artifacts/lunar_sites_v2
axis:no_pareto_removalsevery added axis promoted co-winners only; dominance makes a removal impossibleartifacts/lunar_axis_probe/lunar_axis_probe.json
axis:control_is_presentthe probe's frontier numbers travel with the control that bounds their readingartifacts/lunar_axis_probe/lunar_axis_probe.json
Built offline from artifacts/discovery_atlas/discovery_atlas.json (sha256 f50ff74ea8bf693f…) and artifacts/lunar_axis_probe/lunar_axis_probe.json. Regenerate with python scripts/build_atlas_page.py. Scope: map-scale terrain-morphology screening only — no traversability, geologic-equivalence, site-access or mission-readiness claim, and no composite analog score anywhere on this page.